Gold Faces Key Resistance: Potential Bull Trap Before bearish

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🟢 Big Picture – What’s Happening on the Chart?

This is a 1-hour chart of XAU/USD (Gold), showing the recent trend, key levels, and a forecasted movement.

At a glance, you can see that Gold has been in a bullish recovery since the drop on May 29. The market is currently testing a key resistance zone (around $3,400), which aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending channel and a previous consolidation area.


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🔍 Technical Breakdown (Experienced View)

1. Trend Structure

The market formed a higher low after a recent dip (around May 29), suggesting bulls are gaining control.

Price is respecting an ascending trendline, showing a short-term bullish channel.

However, the price is approaching an area of confluence resistance (horizontal resistance + channel top).


2. Chart Patterns

The current setup hints at a rising wedge, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern.

The chart shows projected arrows suggesting a breakout to the upside (short-term) followed by a pullback, which matches how wedges often behave: false breakouts before the real move.


3. Fib and Zone Analysis

The color bands behind the chart likely represent Fibonacci retracement zones or volume profile levels.

Notice how the price interacts with the green/yellow zone—it’s a clear area where price historically reacts.

If price rejects from here, a pullback to the 3,350 or even 3,300 zone is possible.



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🧠 Experienced Interpretation

If I were trading this:

Scenario A (Breakout Trap): I’d be cautious about chasing a breakout above 3,400. This could be a liquidity grab, where market makers push price slightly above resistance to trap breakout buyers, then reverse.

Scenario B (Short Setup): After the false breakout, I’d look for bearish confirmation (rejection candle, bearish engulfing, or RSI divergence) to enter a short targeting 3,350–3,300.

Scenario C (Long Continuation): If price breaks out strongly and retests the 3,400 level as support, I might switch bias and go long toward 3,450. But I’d need a clear break and hold above this level first.



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🧭 Trading Psychology Reminder

This chart reflects anticipation. The trader behind it expects a fake-out before a drop. As an experienced trader, I wouldn’t blindly follow arrows—but I’d use them to prepare “if-then” scenarios, like:

If price breaks above resistance but closes back inside → look to short.

If price holds above breakout → ride momentum long with tight risk control.



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✅ Summary

Current bias: Bullish short-term, bearish correction expected.

Key zones: Resistance at $3,400–$3,420; Support at $3,350 / $3,300.

Strategy: Wait for confirmation of either breakout or rejection; prepare for both outcomes.

Risk Management: Crucial at resistance zones like this—false breakouts are common traps.

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