ADP data impact: The US "small non-farm" data in May was significantly lower than expected (37,000 new vs. 110,000 expected), strengthening the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar was under pressure (falling below the 99 mark), US Treasury yields fell, and gold was supported as a safe-haven asset.
Technical signal: The bottoming pattern of gold daily line was confirmed, and the low point gradually moved up (3344→3350). The short-term bulls were strong, but attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the previous high of 3392 pressure level.
Non-farm outlook: If the non-farm data continues to be weak on Friday, gold may accelerate its rise; if it rebounds beyond expectations, the US dollar may rebound in the short term, and gold faces the risk of a correction.
Technical analysis
Key price
Support: 3344-3350 (intraday low and early long order entry, long defense line)
Resistance: 3385-3392 (Wednesday high and early week suppression, breakthrough opens up upside)
Bull-bear watershed: If gold price stands above 3392, the target is 3420-3450; if it loses 3344, the risk of short-term correction increases.
Form and momentum
15-minute chart: The big positive line rises with large volume, showing strong bullish momentum, but be wary of the decline in the latter part of the US market (3384→3360).
4-hour chart: MACD golden cross continues, RSI is close to the overbought zone, there may be short-term fluctuations, but the trend is still bullish.
Operation strategy suggestions：
Day trading (June 5)
Long strategy
Entry point: Long with a light position when the price falls back to 3355-3360, and those who are conservative will wait for the area around 3345 to increase their positions.
Stop loss: below 3340 (to prevent false breakthroughs).
Target: 3380-3385 (reduce half position), and look at 3400-3420 after breaking through 3392.
Short strategy (cautious)
Entry point: Try short with a light position when the price first touches 3390-3392 (needs a quick fall signal).
Stop loss: above 3395.
Target: 3375-3365 (short-term speculation callback).
Mid-term layout: If the gold price stabilizes at 3400 after the non-agricultural data, you can arrange long orders with the target at 3450-3480.
Market sentiment and risk warning
Disagreement among retail investors: Some traders bet on continued weakness in non-agricultural data and arrange long orders in advance; other funds are waiting for the direction to be confirmed after the data is released.
Institutional trends: Pay attention to the policy signals before the Fed's June interest rate meeting. If the employment data continues to weaken, the probability of a rate cut in September may rise to more than 50%.
Risk events:
Non-agricultural data deviates from expectations (especially the unemployment rate and wage growth rate).
Geopolitics or unexpected hawkish remarks by Fed officials may disturb the market.
Summary
Gold's short-term technical and fundamental aspects are bullish, but we need to be wary of profit-taking before non-agricultural data. Trading discipline: Strictly stop loss, stop profit in batches, and avoid heavy bets on data. If the Asian and European sessions maintain a consolidation above 3360, the US session can choose to follow up with breakthrough long orders.
Key question to think about: If the non-agricultural data is stronger than expected, where is the limit of gold's correction?
Potential answer: 3300-3320 area (previous platform support + daily level trend line), then you can observe the stabilization signal and re-arrange long positions.
Trade active
Gold technical analysis and trading strategy (key days before non-agricultural)
Core characteristics of the current market
High-level shocks, repeatedly inducing longs and shorts
Asian market fell first and then rose: the early market fell rapidly to wash the market, and the European market rebounded slowly to 3403, sweeping the short orders again.
Bulls still have the upper hand but lack momentum: continuous testing around 3400 without breaking, showing strong resistance above, but bears need to wait for a clear break below 3350-3358 to confirm the weakening.
4-hour structure: contraction shock, waiting for a breakthrough
Support band: 3330-3340 (key long defense position, if it falls below, it will turn short).
Resistance band: 3388-3403 (if it breaks through 3403, it may test 3420).
Bull-bear watershed: 3350-3358 (if it falls below, the bears will dominate, if it holds, it will still fluctuate upward).
Be cautious in holding positions before non-agricultural data: Friday's data may cause violent fluctuations. It is recommended to reduce positions or lock in profits at the end of today's trading.
Today's trading strategy (the last battle before non-agricultural data)
1. Mainly high-altitude (priority strategy)
Entry point:
3388-3400 (short in batches, stop loss above 3405)
If it falls back quickly after a false breakthrough of 3403, you can chase the short on the right side (stop loss 3410).
Target position:
3360-3358 (first target, reduce positions)
3350 (if it falls below, look at 3330-3320)
Key risk control: If the US market stands above 3403, short orders need to stop loss and wait and see.
2. Low-to-long (defensive strategy)
Entry point:
3330-3340 (long after stabilization, stop loss below 3325)
If it quickly falls to 3300-3320 (panic low, you can try to buy the bottom).
Target:
3360-3380 (short-term fast in and out)
3400 (if it breaks through, hold until non-agricultural).
3. Key observation points
If the European market continues to rise slowly, be wary of the US market before the inducement of long and then the plunge (similar to the trend on Thursday).
If the US market directly falls below 3350, it is confirmed that the short position is dominant, and the position can be increased to look down to 3330-3300.
Summary: Be cautious in trading before non-agricultural, and get the key position
Main strategy: 3388-3403 high, stop loss 3405, target 3350-3330.
Secondary strategy: 3330-3340 low long, stop loss 3325, target 3360-3380.
Extreme situation: If it breaks through 3403 directly, wait and see, waiting for the direction of non-agricultural data.
⚠️ Important reminder: Try to reduce or clear positions at the end of Thursday to avoid the risk of violent fluctuations caused by non-agricultural data!
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🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
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🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+JYAQM54nEeYzZTE1
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.