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USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W24 D11 Y25👀 USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W24 D11 Y25 🔥HOT PICK ALERT 🔥 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside intraday confirmation & breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 🔥 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block rejection ✅Daily order block rejection ✅15’ order block ✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly 2025Summary: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected down to the key 38.60% Fibonacci retracement zone and is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, bolstered by a clear hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. This may signal a renewed rally toward key upside targets, especially if the 93.3–99.9 support Zone holds. Chart Context: Current Price: 98.864 Key Fib Support: 38.60% @ 99.906, 48.60% @ 93.310, 61.80% @ 87.476 Support Zone: 93.3–99.9 USD Hidden Bullish Divergence: Observed both in 2021 and now again in 2025 on the MACD Trendline Support: Long-term ascending trendline holding since 2011 Fib Extension Targets (Trend-Based): TP1: 115.000 TP2: 120.000 TP3: 126.666 Key Technical Observations: Fibonacci Confluence: DXY is bouncing from a strong Fib cluster between 93.310 and 99.906, historically acting as a reversal zone. Hidden Bullish Divergence: Suggests potential upside despite price weakness. Downtrend Retest: Price may revisit 93.3–87.4 before confirming full reversal. Breakout Pathway: Green dashed arrows outline the likely recovery trajectory toward 114–126 range. Indicators: MACD: Showing hidden bullish divergence and potential signal crossover. Trendline Support: Holding intact from 2021 low. Fib Levels: Used for retracement and trend-based extension. Fundamental Context: Interest Rate Outlook: If U.S. inflation remains controlled and Fed signals future hikes or sustained high rates, DXY strength may persist. Global Liquidity & Recession Risk: If risk aversion returns, the dollar may rise as a safe haven. Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, trade tensions, or BRICS dedollarization efforts may create volatility. Our Recent research suggests the Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rates due to resilient labor markets and sticky core inflation. This supports bullish USD bias unless macro shifts rapidly. Why DXY Could Continue Strengthening: Robust U.S. economic performance & monetary policy divergence U.S. GDP growth (~2.7% in 2024) outpaces developed peers (~1.7%), supporting stronger USD The Fed maintains restrictive rates (4.25–4.50%), while the ECB pivots to easing, widening the policy and yield gap . Inflation resilience and Fed hawkishness Labor markets remain tight, keeping inflation “sticky” and delaying expected rate cuts; market-implied cuts for 2025 have been pushed into 2026 Fed officials (e.g. Kugler) emphasize ongoing tariff-driven inflation, suggesting rates will stay elevated. Safe-haven and yield-seeking capital flows With global risks, capital favors USD-denominated assets for yield and stability Why the Dollar Might Face Headwinds Fiscal expansion & trade uncertainty Ballooning U.S. deficits (~$3.3 trn new debt) and erratic tariff policy undermine confidence in USD Wall Street’s consensus bearish position. Major banks largely expect a weaker dollar through 2025–26. However, this crowded bearish sentiment poses a risk of a sharp rebound if data surprises occur barons Tariff policy risks Trump's new tariffs could dampen dollar demand—yet if perceived as fiscal stimulus, they could unexpectedly buoy the USD . Synthesis for Our Biases A bullish DXY thesis is well-supported by: Economic and policy divergence (U.S. growth + Fed vs. peers). Hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation. Safe-haven capital inflows. Conversely, risks include: Deteriorating fiscal/trade dynamics. Potential Fed pivot once inflation shows clear decline. A consensus that could trigger a short squeeze or reversal if overstretched. Philosophical / Narrative View: The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. Periodic dips often act as strategic re-accumulation phases for institutional capital—especially during global macro uncertainty. A return toward 120+ reflects this persistent demand for USD liquidity and safety. Bias & Strategy Implication: 1. Primary Bias: Bullish, contingent on support at 93.3–99.9 holding. 2. Risk Scenario: Breakdown below 93.3 invalidates bullish thesis and targets 87.4–80 zones. Impact on Crypto & Gold and its Correlation and Scenarios: Historically, DXY has had an inverse correlation to both gold and crypto markets. When DXY strengthens, liquidity tends to rotate into dollar-denominated assets and away from risk-on trades like crypto and gold. When DXY weakens, it typically acts as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold. Correlation Coefficients: DXY vs. Gold: ≈ -0.85 (strong inverse correlation) DXY vs. TOTAL (crypto market cap): ≈ -0.72 (moderate to strong inverse correlation) Scenario 1: DXY Rallies toward 115–126 then, Expect gold to correct or stagnate, especially if yields rise. Crypto likely to pull back or remain suppressed unless specific bullish catalysts emerge (e.g., ETF flows or tech adoption). Scenario 2: DXY ranges between 93–105 then Gold may consolidate or form bullish continuation patterns. Then Crypto may see selective strength, particularly altcoins, if BTC.D declines. Scenario 3: DXY falls below 93 and toward 87 Then Gold likely to rally, possibly challenging all-time highs. Crypto could enter a major bull run, led by Bitcoin and followed by altcoins, fueled by increased liquidity and lower opportunity cost of holding non-USD assets. Understanding DXY’s direction provides valuable insight for portfolio positioning in macro-sensitive assets. Notes & Disclaimers: This analysis reflects a technical interpretation of the DXY index and is not financial advice. Market conditions may change based on unexpected macroeconomic events, Fed policy, or geopolitical developments.
TVC:DXYLong
by BitonGroup
DXY Ready to Reload? Eyes on 99.100 as Tariff Tensions Ease!!Hey Traders, In tomorrow's trading session, we're closely monitoring the DXY for a potential buying opportunity around the 99.100 zone. After trending lower for a while, the dollar index has successfully broken out of its downtrend and is now entering a corrective phase. We’re watching the 99.100 support/resistance area closely, as it aligns with a key retracement level making it a strong candidate for a bullish reaction. On the fundamental side, Friday's NFP data came in slightly above expectations, which is typically USD-positive. In addition, recent Trump-led de-escalation in U.S.-China tariff tensions is another supportive factor for the dollar. Trade safe, Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
10
EUR/USD tests three-year ceiling Aside from a brief spike in April, EUR/USD has remained below 1.1500 for over three years. Sellers again have had to defend the zone following the weaker-than-expected US CPI release. The main resistance zone potentially spans all the way up to 1.1573 (the April high). Some indicators suggest potential room for further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet reached overbought territory, and the Daily Moving Average is positively sloped. A break below the 4-hour Moving Average could trigger more selling pressure and a potential correction.
by BlackBull_Markets
xauusd weekly analysis **XAU/USD Weekly Analysis** *(June 2-13, 2025)* --- ### **LAST WEEK'S PERFORMANCE (June 2-6)** **Price Action:** - Weekly decline: **~2%** - Key levels: - Resistance: $3,355–$3,381 (61.8% Fibo) - Support: $3,272–$3,288 (38.2% Fibo) - Range: $3,291.50 (low) to $3,365 (high) - Close: Near $3,310–$3,316 **Key Drivers:** 1. **USD Strength**: Fiscal concerns (Senate tax bill debate adding $3.8T debt) 2. **Reduced Safe-Haven Demand**: Trump delayed EU tariffs to July 9 3. **Central Bank Caution**: Market awaited ECB/BoC decisions and U.S. jobs data --- ### **NEXT WEEK OUTLOOK (June 9-13)** **Critical Technical Levels:** | **Support** | **Resistance** | |-------------------|-------------------| | $3,272–$3,288 | $3,370–$3,375 | | $3,295 (SMA) | $3,381 (Key Breakout) | | $3,210–$3,214 | $3,400–$3,434 | **Fundamental Catalysts:** 1. **Central Banks**: - ECB Decision (June 12) → Dovish stance = USD strength - BoC Decision (June 11) → Rate cuts may boost USD 2. **U.S. Data**: - Non-Farm Payrolls (June 13) → Strong data = fewer Fed rate cuts 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: - Escalations in Ukraine/Middle East → Safe-haven demand 4. **U.S. Fiscal Policy**: Senate vote on $3.8T tax bill **Market Sentiment:** - **Bullish Case**: Break above $3,381 targets $3,500–$3,800 - **Bearish Risks**: Breakdown below $3,272 risks drop to $3,160 --- ### **TRADING STRATEGY** **Key Approaches:** - **🔺 Long Setup**: - Entry: Above $3,381 - Target: $3,500 - Stop-loss: $3,320 - **🔻 Short Setup**: - Entry: Below $3,272 - Target: $3,210 - Stop-loss: $3,310 - **Event Hedging**: Use options around ECB/BoC/NFP events **Risk Management Note:** > "Gold's trajectory hinges on USD dynamics and central bank guidance. A weekly close above $3,381 confirms bull trend resumption." --- ### **KEY EVENTS CALENDAR** | Date | Event | Impact Level | |------------|---------------------------|--------------| | June 11 | Bank of Canada Rate Decision | High | | June 12 | ECB Rate Decision | High | | June 13 | US Non-Farm Payrolls | Very High | | Mid-week | US Senate Tax Bill Vote | Moderate-High| --- **Conclusion:** Next week presents a binary setup for XAU/USD: - Break above **$3,381** opens path to $3,500+ - Failure to hold **$3,272** risks correction to $3,210 Prioritize risk management during high-impact events. The long-term uptrend remains intact but short-term direction depends on USD and central bank policy. for intra day traders and scalpers follow the range zone
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by realmillionairefx
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 9, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) is rising at the start of the new week, reacting to upward revisions to Japan's first quarter GDP data. This comes amid signs of rising inflation in Japan and confirmation of bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates, which in turn provides a slight boost to the JPY. In addition, a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD) is putting some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session. For now, the Yen appears to have broken a two-day losing streak against its US counterpart, although traders may refrain from aggressive directional bets ahead of key US-China trade talks in London. In addition, stronger-than-expected US jobs data released on Friday dampened hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates soon this year, which could serve as a tailwind for the dollar and limit USD/JPY pair losses. Trade recommendation: SELL 143.85, SL 144.85, TP 141.85
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
The Unraveling of an Empire: How Bitcoin Could Break the DollarFor decades, the U.S. dollar has reigned supreme, an undisputed king in the global financial arena. It is the world's primary reserve currency, the bedrock of international trade, and the safe-haven asset investors flock to in times of turmoil. This dominance has afforded the United States what has been called an "exorbitant privilege," allowing it to borrow cheaply and exert significant influence over the world economy. But the ground beneath this financial empire is beginning to shift. A confluence of mounting debt, shifting geopolitical sands, and the rise of a revolutionary technology is creating the conditions for a challenger to emerge. That challenger is Bitcoin. Born from the ashes of the 2008 financial crisis, Bitcoin represents a radical departure from the centrally controlled monetary systems that have governed economies for centuries. It is a decentralized, digital currency, free from the whims of governments and central banks. While initially dismissed as a niche interest for tech enthusiasts and a tool for illicit activities, Bitcoin has steadily gained traction, evolving into a trillion-dollar asset class that is now capturing the attention of institutional investors, corporations, and even nation-states. The question is no longer whether Bitcoin is a fleeting fad, but whether it possesses the power to fundamentally disrupt, and perhaps even break, the long-standing hegemony of the U.S. dollar. A Hedge Against a Failing System One of the most compelling arguments for Bitcoin's ascendancy lies in its inherent properties as a store of value, particularly in an era of unprecedented monetary expansion and soaring national debt. Unlike the U.S. dollar, which can be printed at will by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin has a finite supply capped at 21 million coins. This predictable scarcity is a powerful antidote to the inflationary pressures that erode the purchasing power of fiat currencies. As governments around the world, and particularly the United States, continue to accumulate staggering levels of debt, the temptation to devalue their currencies through inflation grows. The U.S. national debt, now standing at tens of trillions of dollars, raises serious questions about the long-term sustainability of the dollar's value. In this environment, Bitcoin's unalterable monetary policy makes it an increasingly attractive safe haven for those seeking to preserve their wealth. The trend of "de-dollarization" is already underway, with several countries actively seeking to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade and reserves. Geopolitical rivals like China and Russia have been at the forefront of this movement, but even traditional allies are beginning to explore alternatives. The weaponization of the dollar through sanctions has further accelerated this trend, prompting nations to seek financial systems that are not subject to the political whims of a single country. Bitcoin, being a politically neutral and borderless currency, offers a compelling solution. It allows for direct, peer-to-peer transactions across the globe without the need for intermediaries, thereby circumventing the traditional, dollar-dominated financial system. The Rise of a New Reserve Asset The ultimate test of a global currency is its acceptance as a reserve asset by central banks. While this may have seemed like a far-fetched idea just a few years ago, it is now a topic of serious discussion in financial circles. A handful of nations have already taken the pioneering step of adding Bitcoin to their reserves, signaling a potential paradigm shift in how countries manage their sovereign wealth. For central banks, the appeal of Bitcoin lies in its potential for diversification. By holding an asset that is not correlated with traditional stocks and bonds, they can better hedge against various economic and geopolitical risks. As more central banks begin to explore this option, even a small allocation to Bitcoin could have a significant impact on its price and legitimacy. The development of a robust financial ecosystem around Bitcoin is also paving the way for its broader adoption. The emergence of regulated exchanges, custody solutions, and investment products has made it easier for institutions to gain exposure to the asset class. This growing infrastructure is crucial for building the trust and liquidity necessary for Bitcoin to function on a global scale. The Hurdles on the Path to Dominance Despite its disruptive potential, Bitcoin faces a number of significant challenges that could hinder its ability to supplant the dollar. The most frequently cited concern is its price volatility. Wild swings in value make it a difficult medium of exchange for everyday transactions and a risky asset for conservative central banks to hold in large quantities. While volatility may decrease as the market matures, it remains a major obstacle to widespread adoption. Scalability is another critical issue. The Bitcoin network can currently only process a limited number of transactions per second, making it unsuitable for the high volume of payments required of a global currency. While second-layer solutions are being developed to address this, they have yet to be proven at a massive scale. Furthermore, the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies is still in its infancy. Governments around the world are grappling with how to approach this new technology, and the lack of clear and consistent regulations creates uncertainty for investors and businesses. The U.S. government, in particular, is unlikely to cede its monetary authority without a fight, and could impose stringent regulations that stifle Bitcoin's growth. Finally, no currency in history has achieved global dominance without the backing of a major economic and military power. The U.S. dollar's reign is underpinned by the strength of the American economy and its military might. Bitcoin, by its very nature, is decentralized and lacks the support of any single nation-state. This could be both a strength and a weakness. While it provides neutrality, it also means that there is no central authority to backstop the currency in times of crisis. A New Financial Order The notion that Bitcoin could completely break the U.S. dollar and become the sole global reserve currency in the near future remains a speculative one. The dollar's incumbency advantages are formidable, and the challenges facing Bitcoin are substantial. However, to dismiss the potential for a seismic shift in the global financial order would be to ignore the powerful forces at play. What is more likely than a complete replacement is a gradual transition to a more multipolar currency world, where Bitcoin coexists alongside the dollar, the euro, and other major currencies. In this scenario, Bitcoin could serve as a neutral reserve asset, a check on the inflationary tendencies of fiat currencies, and a parallel financial system for those who are excluded from or wish to opt out of the traditional one. The rise of Bitcoin is a clear signal that the world is yearning for a more resilient, equitable, and decentralized financial system. Whether it ultimately breaks the dollar or simply forces it to become more disciplined, one thing is certain: the future of money will look very different from its past. The quiet revolution that began with a single whitepaper is now a global movement, and the foundations of the old financial empire are beginning to tremble.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 6, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.3570 with little movement ahead of the US (US) labor market data. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading above around 98.80 at the time of writing. The upcoming US non-farm payrolls data for May is expected to add 130,000 jobs, down from April's 177,000. The unemployment rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Weekly initial jobless claims rose to 247,000, above the 235,000 expected, U.S. Labor Department data showed. ADP US private sector employment data released on Thursday showed a 37,000 increase in May versus a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, well below market expectations of 115,000. GBP/USD is gaining support as the Pound Sterling (GBP) finds support amid rising risk sentiment in the United Kingdom (UK) markets following US President Donald Trump's executive order signed on Tuesday. British exporters still face the previous 25 percent tariff rate as Trump granted the UK temporary relief from the US' stiff 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3500, SL 1.3600, TP 1.3300
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
DXY BANK VAULT BREAK-IN: Your Dollar Index Profit Blueprint🚨 DXY BANK HEIST: Dollar Index Breakout Robbery Plan (Long Setup) 🚨 🌟 Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba! 🌟 Attention, Market Robbers & Dollar Bandits! 🏦💰💸 Using the 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥, we’re plotting a DXY (Dollar Index) bank heist—time to go LONG and escape near the ATR danger zone. Overbought? Yes. Risky? Absolutely. But the real robbery happens when weak hands panic. Take profits fast—you’ve earned this loot! 🏆💵 📈 ENTRY: BREAKOUT OR GET LEFT BEHIND! Wait for DXY to cross 99.300 → Then strike hard! Buy Stop Orders: Place above Moving Average. Buy Limit Orders: Sneak in on 15M/30M pullbacks (swing lows/highs). Pro Tip: Set a BREAKOUT ALARM—don’t miss the heist! 🛑 STOP LOSS: DON’T GET LOCKED UP! For Buy Stop Orders: Never set SL before breakout—amateurs get caught! Thief’s Safe Spot: Nearest swing low (2H chart). Rebels: Place SL wherever… but your funeral! ⚰️ 🏴‍☠️ TARGET: 102.300 (Bank Vault Cracked!) Scalpers: Long only! Trail your SL like a pro thief. Swing Traders: Ride this heist for maximum payout. 💵 MARKET CONTEXT: DXY IS BULLISH (But Traps Await!) Fundamentals: COT Reports, Fed Plays, Geopolitics. Intermarket Sentiment: Bonds, Gold, Stocks—all connected. Full Analysis: Check our bio0 linkks 👉🔗 (Don’t trade blind!). ⚠️ ALERT: NEWS = VOLATILITY = TRAP ZONE! Avoid new trades during high-impact news. Lock profits with trailing stops—greed gets you caught! 💥 SUPPORT THE HEIST (OR GET LEFT BROKE!) Smash that Boost Button 💖→ Stronger team = bigger scores! Steal profits daily with the Thief Trading Style. 🎯🚀 Next heist coming soon… stay ready! 🤑🐱‍👤🔥
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Thief_Trader
Bitcoin Brewing - A large move is coming!Bitcoin has been under pressure over the last few trading sessions. Despite the equity markets going higher this asset is stuck in a holding pattern. We are currently forming a wedge pattern that has given us a directional bias to trade. Price action is at a 50/50 in terms of falling lower or rallying higher. Being the fact that the bulls have been forming higher lows & higher highs, we have to give them due respect. However understand this BTC is showing some distribution signs and is likely going to have a decent selloff within the next 15-45days. We may have 1 more spike higher but we may not. 1 note of interest is the 7day & 20 day moving average just signaled a bearish crossover which is something you need to monitor closely. I do think the upside is limited to about 115K if we have 1 more move higher.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trading-Capital
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 3, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair attracted sellers during Tuesday's Asian session and broke part of a strong overnight move up towards the 1.3560 area, or multi-day peak. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, rebounded from a six-week low reached on Monday and proved to be a key factor putting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. In addition, concerns over the deteriorating US fiscal situation and renewed trade tensions between the US and China should help limit USD gains. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, may continue to receive support from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will take a pause at its next meeting on June 18 and will not rush to cut interest rates further. Traders may also prefer to wait for the hearing of the Bank of England's monetary policy report in Parliament. Investors will be closely watching comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) for information on the policy outlook, which in turn will influence the GBP exchange rate. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3495, SL 1.3595, TP 1.3295
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Persistent concerns about the US economy are weighing on the DXY US-China tensions deepened as President Trump criticized China’s rare earth exports and threatened broader tech restrictions and visa cancellations for Chinese students. He also vowed to double tariffs on foreign steel to 50% to strengthen the US steel industry. April headline PCE inflation eased to 2.1% (prev. 2.3%, cons. 2.2%), partly soothing tariff-related inflation concerns. DXY broke below the 99.00 threshold and dropped to a 6-week low. EMA21 is widening its gap with EMA78, suggesting a potential extension of the bearish structure. If DXY breaks below the support at 98.00, the index may decline further to 97.00. Conversely, if DXY reclaims the resistance at 99.00 and breaches above EMA21, the index could advance to 99.50.
TVC:DXY
by inkicho_exness