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6/4/25 - $dsgx - I'd dip buy, but think +ve EPS6/4/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:DSGX I'd dip buy, but think +ve EPS - after a long week in las vegas with the fam trying to remain as anon at the btc conf as possible i'm glad to be back in front of my terminal as my true self, posting anon on stonk :) - i've never written on dsgx but it's been on my radar for several years. it's always just been such a solid company and stock (remember there's a difference between the two!) - never cheap - but good fcf conversion - options chain doesn't give me enough juice to attempt a call spread or s/t similar - i'd guess result is +ve all else equal, but i'm not close enough to the ground to put my $ to work - i'm a dip buyer depending on the result - but defn one to watch esp as the ups, fdx types start to wake up perhaps in 2H at some pt - they've been beaten down too much - and dsgx is the king of the logistics machine, the brains that sits atop the brawn. this is the one to own, eventually. but right now i'm keeping the book lean and raised a bit of cash in the latest run up for those who care i'm currently - 35% obtc (trades 15% disc to BTC spot) - 17% nxt LEAP calls (so about 25% gross) - 10% gamb mix of shares/ option expires (about 40% gross). weird and illiquid stonk rn, probably occupies 20% of my trading time working thru. - 5% TSM LEAP calls (about 10% gross) - short oct ITM expires on RGTI, QBTS, QUBT (about 10% gross equivalent) - and started a small ITM short on BUG today (i love cyber as you guys know, but many of these names are now trading at somewhat indefensible levels and i think are easy profit taking if/when dip). again it's a hedge, not an outright call. - about 25-30% cash. depending on the day. - don't see too many layups which is why i'm still fishing, and not willing to play many EPS this season. lmk if i missed anything or u wanna flame. i'm game. i won't take it personally, never do lol. that's part of the edge. have a good rest of week V
NASDAQ:DSGXLong
by VROCKSTAR
Helen of Troy | HELE | Long at $27.95Helen of Troy NASDAQ:HELE , owner of brands such as OXO, Hydro Flask, Osprey, Vicks, Olive & June, etc, has witnessed an immense decline in share price since its peak in 2021 when it hit just over $265. Now, trading in the $20s... Growth has been a problem for this company (now and future projections) and a major turnaround is needed. However, NASDAQ:HELE is implementing several growth strategies for 2025-2030 under its Elevate for Growth plan and Project Pegasus, so they are very aware of the need to re-inspire investor confidence. They also announced last month the appointment of an interim CEO and CFO. With a 22M float and 12% short interest, this could get interesting. Excluding the current growth issue, the fundamentals of NASDAQ:HELE are quite strong: P/E Ratio: 5x (undervalued) Book Value: ~$70.00 a share (undervalued) Debt-to-Equity: 0.6x (healthy) Quick Ratio: Over 1 (healthy) From a technical analysis perspective, it may have just formed a double-bottom near $24-$25, but a quick drop between $10-$20 is absolutely possible if bad economic news emerges. At $27.95, NASDAQ:HELE is in a personal buy zone with a caution regarding the US economy and this company's ability to turn things around moving forward. Targets: $40.00 (+43.1%) $52.00 (+86.0%)
NASDAQ:HELELong
by WorthlessViews
1
MicroStrategy: The Dumbest Bet on WallStreetMicroStrategy: The Bitcoin Bet Masquerading as a Tech Company Introduction: A Software Company Turned Crypto Casino Once upon a time, MicroStrategy was a business intelligence firm. Today, it’s a Bitcoin holding company disguised as a software business. Its market cap has ballooned to over $100 billion, not because of its software, but because of its aggressive Bitcoin purchases. Investors aren’t buying a company—they’re buying a leveraged bet on Bitcoin. And that bet? It’s built on debt, dilution, and dangerous financial engineering. The Math Problem: MicroStrategy’s Obscene Valuation MicroStrategy is worth three times the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Let that sink in. If you buy MicroStrategy stock, you’re effectively paying three times the price of Bitcoin. It’s like buying Bitcoin at $245,000 per coin when the actual market price is far lower. This isn’t investing, it’s financial insanity. The Debt Trap: How MicroStrategy Keeps the Illusion Alive MicroStrategy’s entire strategy revolves around issuing debt to buy more Bitcoin. It has borrowed $7.27 billion through convertible bonds. Here’s how the cycle works: MicroStrategy issues debt at low interest rates. It uses the money to buy Bitcoin. The stock price rises because investors think it’s a genius move. The company issues more shares to raise more money. It buys more Bitcoin—and the cycle repeats. This is not a sustainable business model. It’s a Ponzi-like structure that depends entirely on Bitcoin’s price continuing to rise. The Accounting Trick: Hiding the Losses MicroStrategy has been misleading investors with custom financial metrics. It created terms like BTC Yield and BTC $ Gain to make its Bitcoin strategy look profitable. But in reality? It recently disclosed a $5.91 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings. And when that news broke, its stock dropped 8.67% in a single day. This isn’t a company, it’s a high-stakes gamble. The Risk: What Happens When the Bubble Bursts? MicroStrategy’s survival depends on Bitcoin’s price never crashing. If Bitcoin falls, MicroStrategy’s stock collapses. And here’s the worst part: If Bitcoin crashes, MicroStrategy might have to sell its holdings, triggering a death spiral. If investors lose confidence, the company can’t issue more debt, and the illusion falls apart. If regulators step in, MicroStrategy’s entire strategy could be dismantled. This isn’t a safe investment. It’s a ticking time bomb. Conclusion: The Dumbest Bet on Wall Street MicroStrategy isn’t a tech company. It’s a leveraged Bitcoin casino. Investors aren’t buying innovation, they’re buying hype, debt, and financial engineering. And when the illusion fades, reality will come crashing down. So ask yourself: Are you investing in a business? Or are you just buying the dream—before it bursts?
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by CassianDrake
6/4/25 - $mdb - Too ambiguous for me here6/4/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:MDB Too ambiguous for me here - my impression this eps season is more consumer-linked co's r struggling more, or unwilling to guide - but B2B types, esp those that serve some layer of the AI stack (including energy - so i mean *all* layers) are finding themselves willing to neck out and/or provide a more willy wonka speech - so while valuation isn't really enticing to me, and you guys know that's what makes or breaks my investment decisions/ even on EPS - UNLESS there's some obvious catalyst... i'm a pass here at 1% fcf and >100% of it being SBC on a stock that's been beaten badly - so gun to my head i'd probably go long (if there are no neutrals, only buy or sell, learn that!). but sometimes the most important option beyond buy, sell and "hold" (whatever that even means) is "do nothing". and here i am watching only. V
NASDAQ:MDB
by VROCKSTAR
Tesla vs. BYD: The Market’s Greatest IllusionIntroduction: The Tale of Two Companies You don’t need to be an economist to see it. Just compare Tesla and BYD. BYD: Founded in 1995, Chinese, over $107 billion in revenue. Tesla: Founded in 2003, American, with less revenue—but a market cap six times bigger. The reason? Because one sells cars, and the other sells dreams. And Wall Street loves a good dream. The Illusion Economy: When Hype Outweighs Reality Tesla’s valuation isn’t tied to assets, production, or profits. It’s a ritual of collective belief—a performance act where branding replaces substance, and expectation outweighs reality. It’s the same logic behind a $1,000 jacket that costs $100 to make. Put a fancy logo on it, and suddenly, it’s not overpriced—it’s "premium." You're not just buying a product; you're investing in a lifestyle. Sure. Keep telling yourself that. Tesla is the $1,000 jacket. BYD is the actual tailor shop. Tesla vs. BYD: The Numbers Tell the Story Tesla’s market cap is over $1 trillion, while BYD’s is under $200 billion. Yet, BYD outsells Tesla globally, especially in China, where it dominates the EV market. Tesla’s valuation is built on brand perception, future promises, and speculative optimism, while BYD’s is grounded in actual production and revenue. Financial Storytelling Over Business Reality Tesla isn’t just a car company—it’s a financial illusion. Markets rise not on performance, but on promise. Stock prices reflect not what a company is, but what a hedge fund feels it might become. It’s not a business model—it’s mood swings with decimal points. BYD’s Competitive Edge Production Power: BYD manufactures more EVs than Tesla annually. Battery Innovation: BYD’s Blade Battery is safer, lasts longer, and is cheaper than Tesla’s. Affordability: BYD’s EVs are significantly cheaper, making them more accessible to global consumers. Market Reach: BYD dominates China, the world’s largest EV market, while Tesla struggles with pricing and competition. The Consequences of Buying the Dream Tesla’s valuation isn’t creating better cars. It’s just creating dumber investors. Investors who think they’re visionaries because they bought into the hype. Consumers who think they’re elite because they bought the label. Boards who think they’re gods because someone inflated their stock ticker. But every illusion has an expiration date. Every bubble has its needle. And when dreams are sold on credit, reality always comes to collect. Reality Always Comes to Collect This isn’t growth. It’s speculative theater funded by your retirement account. Real value doesn’t need hype. It appears in supply chains, production lines, tangible goods, and on profit sheets that make sense even without a TED Talk. So next time you see Tesla’s trillion-dollar valuation, ask yourself: Are you investing in a business? Or are you just buying the dream—before it bursts?
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by CassianDrake
GOLD If the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report comes in significantly below the forecast—for example, an actual figure of 37,000 jobs added versus a forecast of 111,000—the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to interpret this as a sign of weakening labor market conditions. How the Fed May React: Increased Likelihood of Rate Cuts: A weaker-than-expected ADP report suggests slower job growth and potentially softer economic momentum. This would increase the probability that the Fed will consider cutting interest rates or delaying further rate hikes to support the economy. Monetary Policy Shift Toward Easing: The Fed’s dual mandate includes maximum employment and price stability. Signs of labor market weakness could prompt the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance, signaling potential rate cuts or more accommodative policies to stimulate growth. Market Expectations and Sentiment: Such a disappointing jobs figure typically leads to a weaker US dollar as markets price in easier monetary policy. It may also boost risk assets like equities and gold due to lower borrowing costs and increased liquidity. Cautious Fed Communication: While the Fed may acknowledge the weaker data, officials often emphasize looking at a broad range of economic indicators rather than a single report. They may wait for confirmation from the upcoming official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report before making decisive policy changes. Summary Below-forecast ADP jobs data (37k vs 111k forecast) signals labor market softness. Fed likely to lean toward rate cuts or hold to support growth. Market reaction: USD weakness, potential equity and gold gains. Fed will monitor subsequent data, especially the official NFP report, before adjusting policy significantly. #gold
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
by Shavyfxhub
TSLA Honey Ticking Bull Trap!TSLA has a beautiful big ars bear flag! While it should have broken down to trigger a short trade, it decided to Honey Tick people right into a Trap! It formed a perfect MEGAPHONE in wave 3 up that has now CRACKED! This is a much juicer short setup with the potential of collapsing from here and taking out the entire bear flag and MORE!! First, we need a lower low and then a lower high and off we GO BABY!!! Don't Get HONEY TICKED! As I always say, never EVER!! Invest in toxic people like Elona. They always blow themselves up in the end. It's in their nature! Click boost and follow, let's get to 5,000 followers. ;)
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by RealMacro
59
USDJPY Tests Channel Support After ADP Shock — Rebound Ahead?In the last hour's candle after the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Index was released, USDJPY ( FX:USDJPY ) started to fall, but considering the position of this pair, I think we can have a good Risk-To-Reward even if the Stop Loss (SL) is touched. USDJPY is trading near the lower line of the ascending channel and the Support zone(143.870 JPY-143.430 JPY) . From an Elliott Wave perspective , USDJPY appears to be completing a corrective pattern . I expect USDJPY to rise at least to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . Note: Stop Loss = 143.220 JPY Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze (USDJPY), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
27
Gold fluctuates. It is expected to retreat.Gold continued its strong performance on Monday in the early trading yesterday and reached a high of around 3391 before starting to fall all the way. It was weak and downward in the European trading. The US trading quickly fell back to around 3335 and then rose again. However, it touched the 3372 line again in the morning and continued to fall, forming a large range of fluctuations. Affected by the ADP data, although the positive impact is large, it is very likely to be just an illusion given to the market, not to achieve a strong effect. The key pressure position above is maintained at around 3360, which may play the role of a watershed between long and short positions, and the strong pressure above will also be maintained at 3365; the support position below is around 3340. Once this position is broken, the room for decline may be expanded in the later period. Although the MA5-day and 10-day moving averages have the intention of forming a golden cross, they have not completely released the energy of the bulls, making the market more unpredictable for the bears. In the correction of the bulls' strong upward movement, there was no further effort. Perhaps this is one of the signs of bull exhaustion. The current channel position formed from 3391 also gives the bulls enough pressure. Only by breaking through this position again can a strong upward trend be achieved. Operation strategy: Short near 3360, stop loss 3370, profit range 3345-3330.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Quaid-1
S&P 500 is Under Pressure from Weak ADP Data, Strong ResistanceThe S&P 500 is showing signs of contraction just below the key 6000 level. The ADP employment report, which revealed the slowest pace of hiring since March 2023, has raised some concern among investors. Whether this weak labor data will significantly impact the broader stock market remains to be seen. Tariff effects appear to be gradually surfacing, first in jobless claims, then in the ISM manufacturing data, and now in the ADP report. Inflation data will likely be affected last, probably in a few months, due to the fact that both households and businesses frontloaded purchases ahead of the tariffs. As a result, the market could first confront recession fears, followed later by concerns about stagflation. From a technical standpoint, a short-term RSI divergence is emerging, and the 6000 level is acting as strong resistance. If the S&P 500 fails to break above this resistance, a selloff could be triggered, with the 200-hour moving average as the initial target. Should the index fall below the 200-hour level, bearish momentum could increase, potentially deepening the correction. To invalidate this negative scenario, the index would need a clear breakout above 6000, confirmed by multiple daily closes above that level.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by ftdsystem
If the direction is unclear, don’t panic, respond flexibly!Gold has been showing a daily yin-yang alternating pattern since last Wednesday, but the overall rising rhythm has not been broken. The MA5-day moving average and the MA10-day moving average formed a golden cross and continued to extend upward. The arrangement of this moving average system provides a certain support momentum for the gold price. During the day, we need to focus on the support effect of the moving average. The current 5-day moving average is near 3340, and the 10-day moving average is near 3325. These two positions constitute an important support area for the short-term gold price correction. In terms of upper resistance, first pay attention to yesterday's high of 3392. If the gold price can break through this resistance level, it means that the upward momentum is strong, and it is expected to continue to be strong to 3400-3420, further opening up the upward space. From the 4-hour chart, as long as the short-term gold market is above 3330, then gold is still in a strong bullish trend. On the contrary, if it falls below the closing line near 3330, then it is a broken trend line, and the subsequent market is likely to form a weak shock pattern again, so the current operation is actually very simple. As long as the 3330 position is not broken, you can rely on 3330 to enter the market and do more. Focus on the support near yesterday's low of 3333 below, and focus on the resistance near 3375-3380 above. Gold operation suggestions: It is recommended to short gold near 3365-3375, with a target of 3350. Go long gold when it falls back to 3335-3345, with a target of 3360-3370.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel5
#DOTUSDT: Targeting $50 By End Of The Year! Wait For Volume ? Hey everyone! So, about DOTUSDT, it’s been trading sideways at $4 lately. However, it has the potential to break through and hit new highs in the coming weeks or months. We’re not sure exactly what will happen next, but once it does, we expect it to start distributing its value. If this happens, we could see it reach our $50 mark by the end of the year. I know this is just our speculative view, and we can’t rely solely on technical analysis to make this happen. We also need strong fundamental support. But hey, it’s worth a shot, right? If you like our work, please give it a like and let us know what you think in the comments. We’d love to hear your thoughts! Wishing you all the best and happy trading! 😊 We really appreciate your unwavering support! ❤️🚀 And if you’d like to lend a hand, here are a few ways you can contribute: - Give our ideas a like - Share your thoughts in the comments - Spread the word about our ideas Cheers, Team Setupsfx_
Long
by Setupsfx_
13
Gold fluctuates, with downward support at 3325 📌 Driving events The number of ADP jobs in the United States in May was 37,000, expected to be 110,000, and the previous value was 62,000. 📊Comment analysis Views on the trend of gold in the US market! After a day of swinging, gold is still fluctuating between 3372 and 3340. After opening high and closing low on Monday, gold has been fluctuating for two days. The ADP data will be released tonight. Whether it can break the trend of the volatile market tonight depends on the release of the ADP data. If it is still the case, we can only wait for the big non-agricultural data on Friday. In the face of this volatile trend, Labaron still recommends maintaining the previous operation strategy. The support below is 3330-25. If it breaks down, we will talk about it. If it still remains above this level, we will still operate with the oscillating trend. After all, in the face of the current trend of neither long nor short continuity, a single direction will only make you lose all your profits. For the current decline, we should first look at the support of 3330-25! ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
TVC:GOLDLong
by Labaron
GOLD → Consolidation before a strong move...FX:XAUUSD is consolidating after a false breakout of resistance at 3365, awaiting economic data. The metal remains attractive to investors amid the economic crisis. Gold is supported by the weakening dollar amid increased trade risks. Today, US tariffs on steel and aluminum come into force, and Trump's ultimatum to trading partners expires. Investors are also awaiting news of a possible meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping amid new accusations against China. The focus is on key employment data (ADP) and the ISM services index, which could influence the dollar and expectations for the Fed's actions. Technically, the market may test the 3323 liquidity zone before continuing its growth. Resistance levels: 3365, 3391 Support levels: 3345, 3323, 3303 Overall, both the global and local trends are bullish, with the price forming a local correction after a false breakout of resistance. If the bulls hold their ground above 3323-3345 after retesting support, growth may continue in the short to medium term. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
7
Great time to get into UVIXHorrible jobs numbers = "sh&t economy." Further validation that the last few days that S&P spiked were full of hot air. The economy is not doing well, and these are just lagging indicators, which means that actual problem is bigger. Default rates are higher than 2008, weakening dollar (9% since start of the year), high # of bankruptcies....the only thing keeping this afloat is QE and people's 401k chasing ETFs that will most all fall down since the correlation is weaker today than 5 years ago. Best of luck and always do your own due diligence!
CBOE:UVIXLong
by antonini2002
GOLD GOLD ..first layer support will 3322 100pips drop from yesterday low. another demand floor will be on the ascending trend line 3310-3313. economic data print 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast 111K 3:00pm USD ISM Services PMI this most important data print will be the ADP non farm employment change The forecast for the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for May 2025 is approximately 111,000 The ADP report measures private sector employment growth and is released about two days before the official government Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. It serves as an early indicator of labor market trends and consumer spending potential. April’s ADP employment growth was soft at 62,000, reflecting caution amid trade tensions and economic uncertainty. The May forecast of 111,000 jobs suggests a moderate rebound in private sector hiring. Summary: May 2025 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast: ~111,000 jobs April 2025 Actual: 62,000 jobs Significance: Indicates expected improvement in US private sector job creation ahead of the official NFP report. why is ADP Non farm employment change important ??? The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is considered a leading economic indicator because it provides an early and timely estimate of changes in private sector employment in the United States, typically released two days before the official government Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. This early insight helps investors, policymakers, and traders gauge the health and direction of the US labor market before the more comprehensive official data is published. Reasons why ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is a Leading Indicator: Early Preview of Labor Market Trends: It offers a preliminary snapshot of private sector job creation based on payroll data from around 400,000 US businesses, covering about 20% of the private workforce. This makes it a timely gauge of employment trends ahead of the official NFP report. Market Impact and Sentiment: Because it signals the strength or weakness of the job market, the ADP report influences market expectations for economic growth and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Strong ADP job growth tends to boost confidence in the economy and can lead to currency appreciation, especially of the US dollar. Influence on Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve closely monitors employment data to guide interest rate decisions. The ADP report’s early indication of employment trends helps anticipate Fed actions, affecting bond yields, currency markets, and broader financial conditions. Correlation with Official NFP: While not perfectly aligned due to methodological differences, the ADP report often correlates with the official NFP figures, making it a useful forecast tool for traders and analysts. Summary The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is a leading economic indicator because it provides an early, data-driven estimate of private sector employment changes, helping markets anticipate the official NFP report and influencing financial market expectations and policy decisions. #gold
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
Brent intra-day Analysis 04-Jun-25Explaining the reasons for Oil gapping up during this weekly open, in addition to going over the possible scenarios we could have for the upcoming sessions. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:BRTUSD
by easyMarkets