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Fundamental Analysis

FIL 1D – Bear Load Hits 75% as Bulls Face Critical SupportFilecoin trades below both EMA 50 ($2.82) and EMA 100 ($3.03), signaling trend weakness. Heikin Ashi structure confirms continuous downside pressure. Bear Load at 75% — trend intensity tilted short. MACD still below zero line with no crossover in sight. Last defense sits at $2.50 zone — a break could trigger liquidity sweep into $2.30s. Reclaim of $2.82 (EMA50) flips short-term bias. Volume increasing on red — smart money may be prepping the trap or acceleration. Let price speak — stay tactical. #FILUSD #Filecoin #CryptoTA #TrendAnalysis #HeikinAshi #EMAStack #BearLoad
KRAKEN:FILUSDLong
by BroLal
BTC Trendline Breakdown? Bearish Setup Brewing!📉 #Bitcoin has recently broken its key trendline after making a new All-Time High (ATH). This could be the first major sign of a trend reversal. Here’s what we’re seeing: 🔹 Trendline Broken: The uptrend has been broken — a significant technical signal. 🔹 Retesting the Break: Price is currently retesting the broken trendline, a classic move before continuation. 🔹 Triple Touch Confirmation: The trendline was respected with 3 clear touches during the uptrend — increasing the validity of this break. 🔹 Support Still Holding: We’re watching a major support level below — a break here would confirm bearish momentum. 🚨 Strategy Plan: If the support level breaks and #BTC retests it as resistance, we’re planning a short position with strict risk management. Patience is key — wait for confirmation before entering! 🛡️ Risk Management First. Always. Don't rush into a trade — wait for a clean breakdown and retest for a high-probability entry. 📊 What do you think? Is #BTC ready to reverse, or will the bulls defend the trend? 👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments. ❤️ Like this idea if it helped you. ✅ Follow for more #BTC setups and real-time updates! #BTCUSD #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #TrendlineBreak #ShortSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #BearishReversal #PriceAction #TradingStrategy
Short
by mudusir
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH ------ DETAILED ANALYSISXAUUSD is currently forming a classic bullish flag pattern on the 12-hour timeframe after a strong impulsive rally from the 3145 demand zone. The consolidation is tight and orderly, holding above the key structure zone and forming lower highs and lower lows within the flag. This setup indicates a continuation pattern, and with price stabilizing around 3315, a breakout to the upside is increasingly likely. A clean breakout from the flag will likely ignite the next bullish wave toward the 3500 level. From a fundamental perspective, gold remains supported amid renewed market concerns around inflation persistence and global macro uncertainty. The latest US economic data, including slower job growth and declining consumer sentiment, is increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve might be nearing the end of its tightening cycle. This is weakening the US dollar and boosting safe-haven demand for gold. Additionally, central banks, particularly from China and emerging markets, continue to increase gold reserves—adding to long-term bullish sentiment. Technically, XAUUSD has already respected a strong demand zone around 3145 multiple times, which reinforces that institutional buyers are defending this area. The market structure remains bullish, and higher lows continue to form, aligning with a potential trend continuation. If price breaks above the flag resistance around 3325–3330 with volume confirmation, the bullish target of 3500 could be reached swiftly. As long as gold holds above the 3270–3280 support zone, the risk-reward setup remains favorable for long positions. With a confluence of strong fundamentals and a high-probability technical pattern, XAUUSD is setting up for a potential breakout rally. Traders should watch closely for breakout confirmation to ride the momentum toward new highs in this evolving bullish trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
Trade war & NFP in focus this weekSeveral fundamental factors will have a strong impact on financial markets in this first week of June, as uncertainty surrounding the trade war remains high. However, there was some good news last Friday, with US PCE inflation continuing to move towards the Fed's target despite tariffs. This week, two fundamental factors are under close scrutiny: US labor market figures (NFP report) and, of course, as every week, the current phase of trade diplomacy. 1) US PCE inflation is still trending towards 2% and is not rebounding despite the trade war US inflation and employment are the two key variables for considering a resumption of the decline in the federal funds rate, with Trump receiving Powell at the White House at the end of last week. However, the Fed has reiterated its independence and the future direction of its monetary policy will continue to be guided by specific macroeconomic objectives: bringing inflation back to 2% and neutralizing any rise in unemployment. Good news! Last Friday's update on US inflation according to the PCE price index showed that tariffs did not cause inflation to rise in April. On the contrary, the nominal inflation rate is now 2.1% and core inflation is 2.5%. Disinflation therefore seems set to continue in the US despite the tariffs, but this still needs to be confirmed. 2) The market does not expect any rate cuts before September Despite these good PCE inflation figures for April (PCE being the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) and pressure on the Fed from the Trump administration, the market does not expect the federal funds rate to resume its downward trend before the monetary policy decision in September. The debate remains open for the July 30 monetary policy meeting, so the upcoming updates on US employment (NFP report) and inflation will have a decisive impact. 3) The NFP report on Friday, June 6, will be crucial this week! In this first week of June, the US labor market will be the fundamental highlight of the week. All US employment statistics will be updated, with the NFP report on Friday, June 6 being the most important. While it appears that the trade war has not yet pushed inflation up, what about the labor market? Remember that the US unemployment rate is 4.2% of the labor force and that the Fed's alert threshold is 4.4% of the labor force. If it turns out that US companies have had to lay off workers due to the economic uncertainty linked to the trade war, this could accelerate the upcoming schedule for lowering US federal funds rates. Finally, remember that the market is hoping for a phone call between Trump and the Chinese president to finally reach a trade agreement between China and the US. This is a fundamental thread to follow every day on the stock market. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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FRED:UNRATE
by Swissquote
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 2, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD is recovering its recent losses recorded during the previous session, trading around 1.13700 on Monday during Asian hours. The pair is strengthening amid a weakening US dollar (USD) after the US Court of Appeals ruled on Thursday to allow US President Donald Trump's tariffs to take effect. On Wednesday, a panel of three judges at the International Trade Court in Manhattan said Trump had exceeded his authority by imposing broad import tariffs and ruled the orders issued on April 2 illegal. On Friday, President Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania that he plans to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum to increase pressure on global steel producers and escalate the trade war. “We are going to impose a 25 percent increase. We are going to raise tariffs on steel imported into the United States from 25 percent to 50 percent, which will further strengthen the steel industry in the United States,” he said, according to Reuters. On Saturday, the European Commission (EC) warned that Europe is ready to respond to President Trump's plan to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which would escalate the trade war between the world's two largest economic powers. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.13600, SL 1.13200, TP 1.14200
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
The international situation is turbulent, how is the trend of goInformation summary: On June 1, Russia and Ukraine continued to clash. Ukrainian drones attacked several Russian military airports, including military bases in eastern Siberia, more than 40 aircraft were damaged, and the loss was about 2 billion US dollars. This was the first time that a military base in Siberia was attacked by a drone. Murmansk Oblast was also attacked by a drone on the same day. However, on the same day, Russia and Ukraine planned to hold a second round of ceasefire negotiations in Istanbul on June 2. The United States said that it was not informed of the Ukrainian attack in advance. Russia and the US Foreign Minister discussed the negotiation plan by phone. The Hungarian Prime Minister revealed that the mediation in 2024 was unsuccessful, and the two sides had obvious differences on the timing of the ceasefire. The current situation is complicated, the prospects for peace talks are unclear, and market risk aversion and economic data (this week's employment report, central bank interest rate decision, etc.) have become new focuses. Gold trend analysis: From the daily chart, the current daily support position is around 3280. This position is the key to the gold band trend. Since the price has broken upward recently, it has stepped back many times and finally closed above the daily support, so the position of the daily support is still the key. Before falling below this support level, the price will most likely maintain a range of 3320-3280 US dollars. Operation strategy: Buy near 3280, stop loss 3270, profit position 3320.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Quaid-1
NZDUSD BUYSNZDUSD is expected to buy to complete the crab pattern around 0.61200 psychological level BOUNCING FROM A 1HR FVG(Fair value Gap). we saw an expected rate cut of NZD interest rate at 25 basis point(0.25%) was was a dovish stand by the central bank. with investment sentiment still high on risk-on assets, I expect nzd to bully the green-back which is struggling with low interest rate figures as a result of declining inflation figures nearing its 2024 inflation target of 2% and global trade wars.
Long
by Boahfx
1
GOLD expected to rebound, key trends, jobs data This week, we have the facts that Trump has stirred up the market, Powell has not changed his stance. With the biggest data of the week, the US Non-Farm Payrolls, to be released, the price of OANDA:XAUUSD is expected to rise again after a week of consolidation. Last Week in News After weeks of tariff-easing talks that sent U.S. stocks soaring, Wall Street has once again been caught up in the constant flux surrounding Trump’s trade regime. This week, a U.S. court also questioned the legality of the White House’s tariffs on global trading partners as the Trump administration ramps up its policy plans. Market sentiment took a turn for the worse on Friday following news about tariffs. US media reported that the White House plans to impose broader sanctions on some foreign technology industries. In addition, Trump said that starting next week, tariffs on imported steel will increase from 25% to 50%. In addition to the tariff headlines, traders also had to contend with weakening US economic data. US consumer spending slowed after recording its strongest month of growth since early 2023 in April. Here are the events markets will focus on in the new week • Next week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and several members of the board and voting members will speak. • Trump met with Powell for the first time in his second term, and Powell continued to emphasize the independence of monetary policy. The US core PCE inflation rate was 2.1% year-on-year in April, slightly below the expected 2.2%. While that bolsters the case for a rate cut, Fed officials have reiterated their patient stance. Minutes from the May FOMC meeting confirmed that policymakers considered the current economic situation sufficient to delay policy action. Despite the weakening sentiment, traders are still betting on a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Key Data: Non-farm data in focus this week The focus of next week’s data will be non-farm payrolls on Friday. The pace of hiring in the US is likely to have slowed in May as households became more cautious, businesses reconsidered investment plans amid shifting trade policies and employers focused on controlling costs. Economists are forecasting a gain of 125,000 in May, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey, after job gains beat expectations in March and April. That would keep the average gain over the past three months at a solid 162,000. The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%. Fed officials are also waiting for clarity on how trade and tax policies will affect the economy and inflation, so they are likely to be cautious about the labor market report. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has been mostly sideways despite the volatility over the past week. The sharpest drop saw gold test the $3,250 support level before recovering to close the week around the confluence of the EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. On the big picture, gold is still technically bullish with the channel as the main trend, while the near-term supports are the $3,250 level followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. A sustained move above $3,300 would be viewed as a positive factor going forward. On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, which in this case acts as momentum support and is still well away from overbought territory so there is still room for upside. The weekly target is the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level in the short term, rather than the raw price point of $3,400. As long as gold remains within the channel, its main technical trend is bullish, and any declines that do not take gold below the channel should be considered short-term corrections rather than a specific trend. Next week, the technical bullish outlook for gold will be focused again on the following positions. Support: $3,250 – $3,228 Resistance: $3,371 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3337 - 3335⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3341 →Take Profit 1 3329 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3323 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3246 - 3248⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3242 →Take Profit 1 3254 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3260
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Tapped In & Tapped Out – Smart Money’s About to Dump AUDUSDAUDUSD has just executed a classic liquidity raid, sweeping a short-term high into a high-probability 1H Order Block (OB) — which also aligns with the continuation move that broke prior structure to the downside. This OB sits directly above equal highs that served as a clear magnet for buy-side liquidity — a textbook inducement for retail breakout traders. Smart money logic suggests these stops were used to fill sell orders. Notably, there’s a Fair Value Gap (FVG) resting just below, which increases the probability of a displacement move to the downside. We now expect price to deliver into the Sellside Liquidity (4H) resting beneath the equal lows, a highly attractive draw on liquidity from an institutional perspective. Key Confluences ✅ 1H OB tapped with precision ✅ Buy-side liquidity swept via equal highs ✅ Clear FVG imbalance below ✅ Sellside liquidity target aligned with equal lows ✅ Weekly bias still leans bearish This is a high-probability setup when following ICT/SMC principles — refined entry, defined target, clean structure. 🔍 Watch for: A clean bearish displacement from current levels Potential lower timeframe confirmations (BOS/CHoCH) for tighter risk entries 📌 Target: 0.64071 🧠 Bias: Bearish ⚠️ As always — DYOR (Do Your Own Research). Institutional concepts work best with context and personal backtesting.
Short
by INSIDER_INTEL
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Monday, 2nd June 2024)Asian + London Session Bias: Bullish USD News(Red Folder): -ISM Manufacturing PMI Notes: - Price gapped up during the market open. - Looking for price to fill up the gap and create rejection for continuation to the upside. - Potential BUY if there's confirmation on lower timeframe - Pivot point: 3269 Disclaimer: This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by HM_fxtrading
Cautious Bulls Meet Trendline Test: USD/CAD Eyes FOMC CatalystCMCMARKETS:USDCAD OANDA:USDCAD USD/CAD extended its recovery for the third day, trading near 1.3833 on modest USD strength following upbeat U.S. data. However, fiscal worries and expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025 may limit upside momentum. Traders are cautious ahead of the FOMC Minutes and U.S. PCE/GDP data, while firmer Canadian inflation and oil prices could support the CAD. Technically, the pair remains within a broad downward channel and is now approaching key resistance at 1.3856, aligned with the descending trendline. A clear rejection here could spark a bearish continuation toward 1.3711 support. A breakout above 1.3937 would invalidate the bearish channel and suggest trend reversal. Resistance : 1.3856 , 1.3937 Support : 1.3711 , 1.3809
by ATFX_Global
Vita Inu Upcoming OnslaughtVita Inu is emerging from a four-year accumulation phase, and we have formed a sideways movement similar to Wyckoff accumulation. The coin is listed on top exchanges and has recently become available on Revolut, Europe’s largest digital bank. There was recent news that Revolut might start operating in the US. All these events will lead to high demand for the coin in the future and, consequently, exponential price growth, especially in the upcoming altseason. This coin not only has the potential to reach the market cap of Shiba Inu, Doge, or Pepe but also to surpass them. If you missed your chance for big gains, this is an excellent opportunity to make money, as the coin’s market cap currently does not exceed $20 million. I forgot to mention that the coin has a fantastic multilingual community, a strong development team, and Wintermute is acting as the market maker for the coin. Still unsure which coin to add to your bag for the altseason? The answer is obvious.
Long
by luciussolar
1
Bitcoin analysis based on market liquidity and M2 money supply This trade enters Bitcoin in the $101,500–$102,200 zone, aiming to capture a high-probability bounce from a dense liquidity pocket formed by recent long liquidations. This region has historically acted as a bull market reaccumulation zone, typically holding after 5–8% drawdowns during major trend continuations. The trade is structured to ride a macro continuation leg toward $125,000, targeting the next major expansion phase driven by both short squeezes (clustered above $106K) and a broader surge in demand following increasing M2 money supply and institutional inflows. The stop-loss is placed at $97,000, a deliberate distance below local support but above the deeper liquidity sweep zone at $89K–$92K. That level is unlikely to be reached unless the market undergoes a full liquidation cascade, which would likely bypass $97K altogether in a fast move. This stop protects against structural failure while avoiding premature exits in normal volatility. The setup is designed for maximum reward with acceptable risk, offering a risk-reward ratio of over 4:1, and aligns with the thesis that Bitcoin is entering its final acceleration phase toward a new macro high.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by mattynewman
XRP AND IDEA 556!⭐ First thing's first, this is the 556 idea, crazy to say but here we are. Hope everyone is doing well today, it's a chill Sunday and all so we're gonna get a quick idea down for you. ⭐ Again, can't believe it, 556 ideas and counting! Feels like I just started this journey only a few months ago and yet here we are, 741 followers and counting, I couldn't have imagined that but I'm so grateful for it and each and every single one of you, thank you for joining me and supporting me on my journey as we continue to strive for nothing less than success. ⭐ Before we get going with this quick idea, feel free to leave a like and follow for many more great ideas to come! Got some good stuff in mind and excited for all the market has in store for us the next few months, and without further a due, let's give it our best! ⭐ Gonna keep this short and concise since I understand it's Sunday so let's get this done. ⭐ First thing's first, we already see we've exited our trend with that exit of the ascending channel in which we also lost the 200 EMA on the 2 hour timeframe prompting a bearish convergence as we kept trying to establish a higher high but without the support of our 200 EMA prompting the reversal which then formed this descending channel towards the end of May leading into June as referenced below: ⭐ We'll be looking to $2.08 for support should we end up reversing further which is a possibility though unlikely since we've deviated from that 200 EMA and soon enough we're going to have to converge and get a bullish crossover of that 200 EMA which will help send us back up. Till then it's fair game for Bulls and Bears, especially with BITSTAMP:BTCUSD sitting at $105,000 right now as many traders watch which direction Bitcoin looks to take next. ⭐ I'll be watching that $2.08 for support as well as the descending channel and 200 EMA, that's basically it right now, gonna stick to trading objectively and sticking to my indicators. Simply enough then, watch that descending channel to see if we continue within it and trend further down or if we can breakout and get a bullish crossover with our 200 EMA which could help prop us back up above that $2.3 range. ⭐ Gotta go, got a lot of things to get done as usual but thanks so much as always for the support! Still can't believe this makes idea 556! So grateful again for everyone and all the support as we climb this mountain, it may not be easy, but the view at the top will be more than worth it. Best regards, ~ Rock '
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Rocksorgate
1
OP - Ranges overview Let's have a quick look at OP. Market is pretty clean and setting up for some interesting moves in the coming weeks. Let's see how the market wants to move from here. IF we reclaim 0.70$ expect us aggressively trade back towards the HTF buyside liquidity at 1.70$. IF we fail to hold 0.60$ expect us to trade lower towards 0.50$ and eventually 0.40$. From a HTF perspective we are back into a weekly FVG from October 2022....if you pay attention you will notice it is the exact FVG which 'changed the bearish trend into a bullish trend' - to explain it in simple terms. WAIT FOR THE MARKET TO SHOW YOU ITS HAND AND TRADE WITH IT. Stay safe and never risk more than 1-5% of your capital per trade. The following analysis is merely a price action based analysis and does not constitute financial advice in any form.
by Patrick2707