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GOLD The higher-than-expected US Unemployment Claims (247K actual vs. 236K forecast) suggest emerging softness in the labor market, increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Here’s how this data impacts the Fed’s policy outlook: Key Implications for the Fed Labor Market Cooling: The uptick in claims aligns with recent trends of slowing payroll growth (Q1 2025 average: 152K jobs/month vs. Q4 2024: 209K) and a stagnant unemployment rate near 4.2%. Fed projections already anticipate unemployment stabilizing around 4.3% in 2025, but persistent claims increases could signal risks to their "maximum employment" mandate. Rate Cut Probability: The Fed has maintained rates at 4.25–4.50% since May 2025 but emphasized data dependence. Weak labor data strengthens the case for cuts, with markets now pricing in a ~60% chance of a September rate cut (up from ~50% pre-data). The Fed’s March 2025 projections flagged rising unemployment as a risk, with some participants favoring earlier easing if labor conditions deteriorate. Inflation Trade-Off: While unemployment claims rose, wage growth remains elevated . The Fed will weigh labor softness against sticky inflation, A cooling labor market could ease wage pressures, aiding the Fed’s inflation fight and enabling cuts without reigniting price spikes. Market Impact DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to weaken further as rate cut expectations rise. Immediate support at 98.40, with a break targeting 97.00 Equities/Gold: Potential gains as lower rates boost risk assets and non-yielding gold. Bond Yields: 10-year Treasury yields may retreat below 4.40% if markets price in dovish Fed action. What’s Next? June 6 NFP Report: A weak jobs number (<150K) would solidify rate cut bets. June 11 CPI Data: Lower inflation could give the Fed confidence to cut sooner. Fed Decision (July 31): Odds of a cut rise if labor data continues to soften. Conclusion The Fed is likely to prioritize labor market stability over inflation concerns if unemployment claims persist above 240K. While a July cut remains possible, September is the most probable start date for easing, contingent on confirming data.#GOLD
CITYINDEX:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Short Crude Oil for The LeapRisk free trade for $100 on MCL Scaling out of the trade from 4 hour supply to 4 hour demand. Using the TrendCloud Trading System and it's working great. So far I'm in the top 7% for this competition. Focusing on managing this crude oil trade and also the opening range on the MNQ and NQ Huge win on day 1 for $4000 on NQ opening range using the TrendCloud Trading Strategy. Backtesting data shows great results. Super proud of this. It took me a month to program everything properly and optimize specifically for the NQ.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by thechrisjuliano
Is there still hope for the bull market to rise today?📰 Impact of news: 1. Progress made in talks between China and the USA 📈 Market analysis: In view of the non-agricultural data to be released on Friday, the market is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend before then. From the daily level: the Bollinger Bands open gently, the gold price is running below the upper track 3414, and the MACD golden cross is running slowly, suggesting that the bullish momentum is weak. At the hourly level, the short-term short position is strong, and there is a certain rebound demand. Therefore, we pay attention to the 3343-3333 support line below, focusing on the 3300 support. After the gold price falls below the 3360 support, the 3360 position will suppress the gold price in the short term. 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3343-3333 TP 3360-3370-3380 SELL 3360-3370 TP 3330-3320 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AllenBoswell-2
Gold Consolidation Formed as Strong moveGold is currently supported by the weakness in the US Dollar, driven by rising trade tensions. The U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium are coming into effect today, and President Trump's ultimatum to trade partners is set to expire, increasing uncertainty in global markets. From a technical perspective, there is a possibility of a false breakout near the 3366 level. If this level fails to hold, gold may test the 3370 liquidity zone, where significant buy-side interest could emerge. Resistance zone 3400 / 3420 Support Levels 3365 / 3350 you can find more details in the chart Ps Support with like and comments for more better analysis Thanks Traders.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MrMartin_11
GOLD: Bullish Outlook - Nothing ChangedGOLD: Bullish Outlook - Nothing Changed Based on our analysis, gold has reached the first target near 3,378.50 and has already made a small correction, establishing a base near 3,362. From a fundamental perspective, no significant changes occurred yesterday, meaning there is no clear reason for gold to shift direction under normal conditions. The price may continue its slow ascent toward 3,390, 3,400, 3,425, and 3,450. However, caution is advised, as these movements appear to be driven more by market manipulation rather than purely technical factors. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Previous analysis:
FX:XAUUSDLong
by KlejdiCuni
5
Chart Overview Instrument: Gold Spot (XAU/USD)🔍 Chart Overview Instrument: Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Timeframe: 2H (2-hour candles) Date/Time: Chart ends on June 5th, 2025, 19:14 UTC. 🟩 Support & Resistance Zones ✅ Resistance Zone Level: Around 3,355 – 3,375 USD 📌 This zone has seen repeated tests and rejections, indicating strong selling pressure. ✅ Support Zone Level: Around 3,160 – 3,180 USD 🛡️ Price bounced from this zone previously, confirming it as a strong support area. ⚙️ Key Observations 📈 Range-Bound Trading The price is currently trapped between the strong support and resistance zones. Multiple rejections at the resistance zone suggest sellers are active above 3,355 USD. 💡 Horizontal Consolidation Price has formed a horizontal range (sideways movement) in recent sessions. This range-bound behavior signals market indecision or a buildup before a potential breakout. 📉 Previous Price Action 🔽 Sharp Reversal Drop Around the middle of May, there was a strong rejection at resistance, followed by a rapid sell-off to the support zone. This shows that the resistance zone is significant and that sellers are quick to act. 🔮 Potential Scenarios ✅ Bullish Breakout If price closes above 3,375 USD with strong momentum, expect a potential bullish rally toward 3,400+ USD. ✅ Bearish Rejection If price fails to close above 3,355 USD and shows rejection candles (like dojis or bearish engulfing patterns), price may retest 3,280 USD and even support at 3,160 USD. 🔔 Key Takeaway & Trader’s Tip ⚠️ Watch for breakout signals near resistance and support. ✅ Volume spikes and momentum indicators will help confirm true breakouts or fakeouts. 🔍 Neutral to Bearish Bias Given repeated rejections at resistance, short-term bias is neutral to bearish unless a breakout occurs. 📝 Summary with Emojis 🔴 Resistance Zone: 🔝💪 🟩 Support Zone: 🛡️🟢 📉 Bearish Momentum likely below 3,355 USD 📈 Bullish Breakout above 3,375 USD 🕵️‍♂️ Watch for consolidation and breakout setups!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VikingFx-Community
The latest gold market trend analysis strategy on June 5: ADP data impact: The US "small non-farm" data in May was significantly lower than expected (37,000 new vs. 110,000 expected), strengthening the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar was under pressure (falling below the 99 mark), US Treasury yields fell, and gold was supported as a safe-haven asset. Technical signal: The bottoming pattern of gold daily line was confirmed, and the low point gradually moved up (3344→3350). The short-term bulls were strong, but attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the previous high of 3392 pressure level. Non-farm outlook: If the non-farm data continues to be weak on Friday, gold may accelerate its rise; if it rebounds beyond expectations, the US dollar may rebound in the short term, and gold faces the risk of a correction. Technical analysis Key price Support: 3344-3350 (intraday low and early long order entry, long defense line) Resistance: 3385-3392 (Wednesday high and early week suppression, breakthrough opens up upside) Bull-bear watershed: If gold price stands above 3392, the target is 3420-3450; if it loses 3344, the risk of short-term correction increases. Form and momentum 15-minute chart: The big positive line rises with large volume, showing strong bullish momentum, but be wary of the decline in the latter part of the US market (3384→3360). 4-hour chart: MACD golden cross continues, RSI is close to the overbought zone, there may be short-term fluctuations, but the trend is still bullish. Operation strategy suggestions： Day trading (June 5) Long strategy Entry point: Long with a light position when the price falls back to 3355-3360, and those who are conservative will wait for the area around 3345 to increase their positions. Stop loss: below 3340 (to prevent false breakthroughs). Target: 3380-3385 ​​(reduce half position), and look at 3400-3420 after breaking through 3392. Short strategy (cautious) Entry point: Try short with a light position when the price first touches 3390-3392 (needs a quick fall signal). Stop loss: above 3395. Target: 3375-3365 (short-term speculation callback). Mid-term layout: If the gold price stabilizes at 3400 after the non-agricultural data, you can arrange long orders with the target at 3450-3480. Market sentiment and risk warning Disagreement among retail investors: Some traders bet on continued weakness in non-agricultural data and arrange long orders in advance; other funds are waiting for the direction to be confirmed after the data is released. Institutional trends: Pay attention to the policy signals before the Fed's June interest rate meeting. If the employment data continues to weaken, the probability of a rate cut in September may rise to more than 50%. Risk events: Non-agricultural data deviates from expectations (especially the unemployment rate and wage growth rate). Geopolitics or unexpected hawkish remarks by Fed officials may disturb the market. Summary Gold's short-term technical and fundamental aspects are bullish, but we need to be wary of profit-taking before non-agricultural data. Trading discipline: Strictly stop loss, stop profit in batches, and avoid heavy bets on data. If the Asian and European sessions maintain a consolidation above 3360, the US session can choose to follow up with breakthrough long orders. Key question to think about: If the non-agricultural data is stronger than expected, where is the limit of gold's correction? Potential answer: 3300-3320 area (previous platform support + daily level trend line), then you can observe the stabilization signal and re-arrange long positions.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Golden_Line_FX
Buy gold, there is still potential to hit 3400Gold gradually fell after touching 3403, and the current lowest has fallen to 3364. Has the gold bull market ended? In fact, I think the gold retracement is a good time to buy, and I am not afraid of gold retracement. From the overall perspective of the day, gold did not fall below the 3360 mark during today's retracement. This area has become the intraday strength and weakness dividing line. As long as gold can stay above 3360, I think gold still has the potential to continue to rebound. Moreover, the tariff issue and geopolitical conflicts have not been effectively resolved, which is still favorable for gold in terms of fundamentals. Moreover, gold has broken through 3400 twice. I think the bull market will not end easily, and there is still the potential to test 3400 again, and it may even rise to the 3410-3420 area. Trading strategy: Consider shorting gold in the 3365-3355 area, TP: 3390-3400
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Steffen_Schade
Today’s gold strategy: go long on support and short on pressure!Today, there is a high probability that the volatile bullish trend will continue. In terms of operation, we should seize the opportunity of short-term bullish. The key support level of the daily line is around 3350-3355. If it falls back to this level, you can arrange short-term bullish with a light position. If the market is strong and there is no obvious correction, you can enter the long position in advance at the 3370 line. Pay attention to the upper resistance level of 3400-3405. Once it breaks through effectively, wait for the opportunity to arrange short positions after the surge. In the volatile market, both long and short positions have opportunities. Don't chase the rise and sell the fall. Be sure to wait patiently for the right time to enter the market and strictly control the position. Gold operation suggestions: short gold rebounds around 3400-3405. Go long gold when it falls back to around 3350-3360. Go long at 3370 first if it is strong and does not pull back.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel5
Gold is long near 3350 in the US market It was at 3361 the previous second, and it reached 3348 the next second. The market was directly washing up and down. You said it would fall. It broke through 3400 directly when it rose, but then fell again. It fell directly below the 3350 bullish dividing point when it fell. The current point is around 3353. Friday is the big non-agricultural data, and we are waiting for the non-agricultural data to be laid out again tomorrow! Gold: BUY GOLD zone: light position operation (can add positions in batches) $3344- $3354 SL $3339 TP around3400- 3410
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Labaron
2
WTI CRUDE OIL: Going for a LH rejection. Sell signal.WTI Crude Oil is practically neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.991, MACD = 0.160, ADX = 24.748) as it's on the 3rd straight day of flat consolidation on the 1D MA50. The last time it did this was on April 2nd, which resulted in a LH rejection to the S1 level. As the presence of the R1 level (64.90) is just above, we expect the market to get rejected and aim for the S1 again (TP = 56.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope